Emerging electoral trends in the light of recent African elections

 Morné Van Der Linde
 BLC LLB LLM (Pretoria)
 LLD candidate and tutor, Centre for Human Rights, Faculty of Law, University of Pretoria
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 Edition: AHRLJ Volume 1 No 1 2001
  Pages: 127 - 139
 Citation: (2001) 1 AHRLJ 127-139
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1.  Introduction

Africa has a relatively brief election history, beginning essentially after the end of colonial rule. This paper presents recent developments in respect of elections and briefly analyses six of the elections that took place in Africa during the year 2000. These particular elections were selected because they can be seen as representative of the nature of the electoral process on the continent as a whole. [1] A brief survey of various political trends and movements over the last four decades will sketch a background against which these elections may be seen. Following this, elections to be held in 2001 will be outlined and finally developing trends will be highlighted.

2.  Post-colonial period

Most African countries became independent in the late 1950s and early 1960s. [2] During the early stages of independence African countries generally inaugurated their recent independence through elections. These elections usually took place in an environment characterised by democratic electoral structures, universal suffrage as well as parliamentary institutions encouraging political competition. [3]

During the late 1960s the zest for elections subsided and elections became less regular. [4] Leaders and political elite applied increasing pressure in order to suppress political participation and electoral competition. [5] Various factors influenced this apparent shift. President Nkrumah of Ghana, for example, sought to dismantle party participation in the name of ethnic harmony. [6] Other factors relate to the fact that political participation and competition were perceived to be a threat by those in power and by other political elites; there were fears of instability and disorder; fears of potential ethnic conflict; class interest and the desire to maintain power.

Since the 1952 Egyptian revolution, 85 violent or unconstitutional changes of government have occurred in Africa. [7] Thus, less than a decade after independence, prevalent political regimes were characterised by authoritarian rule — oligarchies, military regimes, one-party states and those under presidential rule. [8] Subsequent periods in the continent's history were marked by political instabilities, corruption, famine, wars, large foreign debt and large-scale human rights violations.

3.  Movement towards democracy

The 1990s brought yet another change when a wave of democratisation swept across the continent. [9] This movement towards democracy has not gone unscathed. Criticisms relate to its depth and sincerity. Landmark elections during this period are the 1992 Ghanaian elections, which effectively witnessed the country's transition from a military regime to a period of civilian rule, and marked the start of Ghana's Fourth Republic. Subsequent elections were held in 1996 and in 2000.

After pro-democracy demonstrations and international pressure in Kenya, multi-party elections were held in 1992. Despite all the criticisms of the 1992 elections, President Moi proved victorious. Subsequent elections were held in 1997. [10] In South Africa the country's first fully democratic elections were held in 1994. South Africans of all races voted in the 1994 elections and this historic event marked the end of an extended period of racial domination and the end of the era of apartheid. Subsequent elections were held in 1999. [11]

By January 1998, 124 multi-party elections had been held in a total of 45 countries across the continent. These elections included 54 presidential and 70 legislative elections. [12]

The following observations may be made: the process in countries such as Zambia and Malawi produced disappointing results. In Kenya, oligarchy remains under President Moi's rule using elections to further political decay. Although South Africa produced workable democratic institutions, disillusionment surfaces through grim images of a post-apartheid South African society. [13]

Despite these criticisms, some academics consider democracy the lesser of two evils in Africa. Post-colonial Africa has shown that it is a more viable option to be governed by legitimate, democratically elected leaders than by self-proclaimed dictators such as Jean-Bedel Bokassa, Idi Amin or Mengistu Haile Miriam. [14]

In a critical article of 1992, Geisler asks the question whether the African electorate has not suffered a double deceit. [15] Firstly, she states that the electorate has been robbed in various instances of the chance to change their leaders. [16] It is true that in many African countries ex-military leaders have remained in power through the ballot box. Ghana and Senegal serve as good examples where one finds the previous incumbent under the new banner of democracy. The outcome of many elections was predictable, the actual elections almost taking the form of a mere rubber stamp.

Secondly, Geisler criticises the 'democracy police' (election observers) for not condemning seriously flawed elections and consequently deceiving the electorate. It is indeed true that some observer missions risk stepping into various pitfalls. [17] It is time to re-evaluate the scope, content and sincerity of the institution of election observation. As illustrated, it is not only transitional elections that are important, but also subsequent elections. Observer groups should therefore evaluate the process having due regard for the context in which the election takes place as well as the context of previous elections. Observers are not only there to detect fraud and irregularities but their function is also to assist and help establish measures for improving the electoral process in current and forthcoming elections.

This paper does not necessitate an in-depth discussion on the concepts or critiques of democracy. What follows is merely commentary on recent elections as an undeniable and essential ingredient for a workable and sustainable democracy. One should realise that there are no 'quick fixes' on the road to democracy and that democracy is attained only through battles stretching over a number of years. Transitional elections are of great importance but one cannot afford to disregard subsequent elections in the evaluation process.

4.  Elections in 2000

Elections in Africa in the year 2000 include elections held in Comoros, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Mauritius, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. [18] These elections covered a broad spectrum and include presidential, parliamentary, national, provincial, municipal, rerun, run-off and by-elections. Out of the multitude of elections held during the year 2000, brief consideration will be given to those in Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

These countries were chosen for discussion for a variety of reasons. First, they are all culturally diverse, and unique in that sense alone. Second, they are fairly representative of Africa as they include Arab, Anglo and Francophone countries. They are also representative of the various geographic subregions within the continent. The following additional factors add to their significance: their colonial backgrounds, political stability or instability, form of pre-democracy rule, prevalent economic conditions, form of electoral system and the presence of democratic institutions.

This presentation aims to familiarise the reader with the historical and political backgrounds of each country. This will be followed by an analysis of the elections that took place during 2000.

4.1  Côte d'Ivoire

This former French colony gained its independence in 1960. In 1990 President Houphout-Boigny won his seventh presidential mandate after he introduced multi-party politics to the country. Henri Konan Bdi succeeded Houphout-Boigny after his death in 1993 and was elected President in 1995. The popular Democratic Party won a majority of the legislative seats. [19] President Bdi and his government were overthrown by a military coup d'tat on 24 December 1999. Prior to this, concerns were raised in respect of the potentially volatile political situation in the country. [20] Considering the non-democratic character of the Bdi government, the coup may have been perceived as a progressive step; it however raised serious doubts and concerns about the democratic future of the country and the then upcoming 2000 elections. [21]

The 1960 Constitution provides for an Executive President elected by direct vote for a five-year term. [22] The National Assembly, which is the legislative body composed of 175 members, is elected for a period of five years. [23]

The military, led by General Robert Guei, established the Committee for the Salvation of the Republic (CNSP). An interim government and Electoral Consultative Commission were appointed to draft a new constitution and electoral code. The military announced that it intended to play a neutral role in aid of the country's transition. The CNSP announced the proposed dates for the elections in May 2000. In addition, amendments to the proposed new constitution six days before the referendum implied that an attempt was being made to block potential candidacy and left citizens uninformed as to the actual text of the constitution being voted on. [24] By July the political instability of the country had dramatically increased. [25] The National Democratic Institute identified poor election administration, poor access to state-owned media, poor civic and voter education, the lack of domestic election observers, restrictions on political activity and the narrow scope of participation as areas of concern in the run up to the elections. These concerns needed immediate action to ensure free, fair and credible elections. [26]

With the Supreme Court disqualifying two candidates from parties that enjoyed mass following, General Guei managed to ensure that there was only one other credible candidate beside himself left in the presidential elections of 22 October 2000. The candidate was Laurent

Gbagbo of the Front Populaire Ivorien (FPI). Of the 37 per cent of the electorate that cast their vote, 59 per cent did so in favour of Gbagbo. The outcome of the elections thus did not favour Guei. [27] Upon realising his misfortune, General Guei dissolved the National Electoral Commission and declared himself the winner of these elections. This action resulted in mass protests in the streets. Without the backing of the army, General Guei decided to flee the country. Following civil clashes, which left approximately 150 people dead, Gbagbo stepped in as the leader of the country.

The situation in Côte d'Ivoire remains volatile and unstable. A return to democratic principles and a respect for human rights in the near future remain questionable. This is evident through priority concerns in respect of the prevalent conditions in the country raised at the 28th ordinary session of the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights in Cotonou, Benin (23 October-6 November 2000) as well as a foiled coup bid as recently as January 2001. [28]

4.2  Egypt

Egypt, formerly a British protectorate, became independent in 1922. A multi-party system was introduced to the country in 1977. The electorate elects the People's Assembly, which has a membership of 444, for a five-year term. [29] A two-thirds majority of the People's Assembly nominates the President. [30] The nomination is then confirmed by a referendum. The President's power extends to the point where he is able to veto legislation.

President Hosni Mubarak has been the leader of the country since 1981. After the 1995 legislative elections his National Democratic Party (NDP) gained an overwhelming majority of the legislative seats. [31]

Parliamentary elections were held again in 2000. In addition to the ruling party, thirteen other parties participated. These elections were conducted in three rounds, starting on 18 October and ending on 15 November 2000. [32] According to officials, voter turnout in the first two stages of the elections was bigger than any other elections previously conducted in the country. [33] Amnesty International alleged that the first round witnessed patterns of harassment of political opponents and human rights activists. [34] On the other hand Amnesty International saw the ruling by the Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court which lead to full judicial supervision of the elections as a good move in an attempt to ensure free and fair elections. [35] In the view of the Egyptian Minister of the Interior, Habib Al Adli, elections were held under 'full' guarantees. [36] He said that the strong security presence was necessitated by the enormous turnout of voters, and added that police acted with due care and handled incidents such as rioting, harassment and possible intimidation quickly. According to this source, cases of misconduct were investigated and amounted to less than six. [37]

Nevertheless, the fact that the 2000 elections witnessed one of the largest voter participations in Egypt's history should be an indication and reflection of the mindset of the people and their commitment to the electoral process. Competing for a total of 454 seats, the NDP won a total of 353, the independents won 35 and the remaining seats went to the opposition parties with an average of less than ten votes per party. This outcome raises doubts as to the possibility of an effective policy by the opposition parties, which is indispensable in a balanced democracy.

4.3  Ghana

The 1992 elections transformed Ghana from a military regime to governance under civilian rule. Allegations of irregularities surrounding the presidential elections lead to a challenge of the transitional process by a non-violent protest and boycott by all major opposition parties of the parliamentary elections of December 1992. [38] According to Gyimah-Boadi from the Centre for Democracy and Development in Ghana, the exclusion of most of the opposition parties from the elections resulted in de facto domination of the parliament by one party. Presidential and parliamentary elections took place again in 1996. As in the previous elections, Jerry J Rawlings, ex-military leader and head of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), retained his stronghold and continued to rule from 'Osu Castle'.

In the Fourth Republic of Ghana, the President is elected for a four-year term. His term can be renewed only once. The National Assembly of 200 members, which is the legislative organ, is elected for four-year terms on the basis of single-member constituencies. [39]

Last year saw yet another set of elections in Ghana. According to the Ghanaian Constitution Rawlings is compelled to step down from the presidency in the event that the ruling party, the NDC, retains power after the December 2000 elections. Competitive campaigning, appropriate action by democratic institutions, [40] an active NGO community [41] and well-informed civil society marked the pre-election period. Each election seems to confirm a trend towards progressive political competitiveness and levelling of the electoral playing fields. The 2000 elections were no different, with nine parties [42] participating in the 7 December 2000 elections. However, only two parties, the NDC and the NPP (New Patriotic Party), surfaced as the main contenders. The NPP won 93 seats and the NDC 92 seats out of a total of 200 seats. [43] The first round of the presidential elections ended in a stalemate between the two leading candidates Atta Mills (NDC) and John Agyekum Kufour (NPP). [44] Presidential run-off elections were rescheduled for 28 December 2000. Kufour (NPP) took the lead over Mills (NDC) with 56,9 per cent of the votes. [45]

The 2000 Ghanaian parliamentary and presidential elections serve as good examples of democracy in action. The incumbent (also an exmilitary leader) was effectively replaced through the ballot box after the third set of elections in Ghana's Fourth Republic.

4.4  Senegal

Senegal gained independence as part of the Mali Federation on 20 June 1960. On 5 September 1960 the country celebrated its independence as a separate state. [46] In 1974 an opposition party was allowed to register and after this, in 1976, a three-party system was encouraged. In the following year a multi-party system was restored. [47] Prior to 1976 Senegal was a de facto single-party state. President Abdou Diouf has been the leader of Senegal since 1981. During the 1983 elections a large number of parties contested the elections. [48] The 1988 elections were marked by large-scale accusations by frustrated opposition parties. Subsequent elections were conducted in 1994, 1996 and 1998. [49]

The Senegalese President is elected for a seven-year term, which may only be renewed once. The National Assembly (140 members) and the Senate (60 members) are elected for a five-year term. [50]

The 2000 presidential elections were scheduled for 27 February and 19 March 2000. During the 1998 parliamentary elections, thirteen rival parties competed with the Parti Socialiste (PS), the country's leading party since 1960. [51] The dominance of the socialist party as well as the continuous conflict in the south of the country was increasingly criticised by the Senegalese people, and especially by the younger parts of the population. Allegations of electoral fraud and the growing popularity of his rival, Abdoulaye Wade, leader of the opposition party Parti Democratique Sngalais (PDS), endangered a further victory for President Diouf.

The period preceding the elections was marked by high emotions, especially from the ranks of the opposition parties. These high emotions, bred by a tradition of electoral 'cheating', were further fuelled by claims of irregularities in the pre-election phase. These irregularities pertained mostly to voter registers and voter registration cards. [52] Fortunately, most of the problems experienced during the pre-election phase as well as the controversy in respect of the voter cards were resolved before the actual voting. Observers noted that voter turnout was generally high. Only minor incidents of violence were reported. [53]

In the first round of the presidential elections President Diouf gained 41,3 per cent of the votes and Wade 30,1 per cent. During the second, a shift of power resulted in Wade winning over President Diouf by 58,5 per cent to 41,5 per cent of the votes. [54] Interesting results are to be expected from the upcoming parliamentary elections as currently 93 out of the 140 members are from the socialist party, with only 23 seats for the PDS.

4.5  Tanzania

Tanganyika [55] and Zanzibar [56] became a unified state on 26 April 1964, although Zanzibar maintained a large measure of autonomy after unification. In 1992, the country adopted a multi-party system and the first general elections were held in 1995. President Benjamin Mkapa has been the leader of Tanzania since President Ali Hassan Mwiniyi retired in 1995. [57]

The President and Vice-President of Tanzania are elected by direct vote for five-year terms renewable only once. The President of Zanzibar is also elected for a period of five years. The National Assembly (mainland) [58] consisting of a total of 274 members as well as the House of Representatives (Zanzibar) are elected for a period of five years. [59]

The two main parties in the 2000 elections were the governing party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), and the Civic United Front (CUF). Although the country had a peaceful tradition, concerns as to the prevalent volatile political climate in Tanzania were raised. [60] President Mkapa was expected to be victorious on the mainland. The predominantly Muslim CUF, having its main power base on Zanzibar, had grown considerably in strength on the mainland since the 1995 elections. [61] Although various attempts were made to establish peaceful relations between these two parties, emotions remained volatile up until the elections.

Benjamin Mkapa (CCM) won the elections with 71,7 per cent of the votes and was sworn in for his second term of office on 9 November 2000. During the parliamentary elections the CCM won 167 of the 181 seats on the mainland, and also took 35 of 50 seats on Zanzibar. [62] President Amani Abeid Karume (CCM) was sworn in on 8 November 2000 as the President of Zanzibar. [63]

The second multi-party elections seemingly received greater acceptance both at a national and international level than the transitional elections in 1995. Although the credibility of the elections on the island has been questioned, there seems to be a general acceptance of the credibility of the elections conducted on the mainland.

4.6  Zimbabwe

The former British colony of Rhodesia became the independent state of Zimbabwe on 18 April 1980. The first post-independence elections were conducted in 1980 and Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union (Patriotic Front) (ZANU (PF)) has been President of the country ever since. The party retained its power in subsequent elections, which took place in 1985, 1990 and 1995. In 1996 President Mugabe was re-elected for another six-year term.

The President is elected for a period of six years while the House of Assembly (the legislative body of 150 members) is elected on a five-year basis. [64]

Zimbabwe conducted its parliamentary elections in June 2000. The governing party ZANU (PF) remained in power after this very controversial election. The governing party was faced with strong opposition from the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), the only party that could possibly challenge it. The country's involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the high inflation rate, joblessness and the country's massive economic decline strengthened the calls for reform made by the opposition. The period preceding the elections was marked by a four-month campaign of violence, allegedly unleashed by the governing party and aimed at members of the opposition party, and coinciding with farm invasions. [65]

Twenty-four hours before the elections most of the violence and incidents of intimidation subsided. Agyeman-Duah, director of the Ghana-based NGO Centre for Democracy and Development, described the actual election phase as one of the most sincere elections in Africa and certainly one we can all learn a great deal from. [66] The electorate turned up in large numbers and votes were mostly cast in an environment conducive to the execution of civil and political rights. [67]

Months after the election the crisis continues as uncertainty prevails on issues such as the settlement of the land crisis, the country's involvement in the DRC and the difficult economical situation. [68] In addition to the country's questionable human rights record, international human rights activists were outraged at President Mugabe's announcement of blanket amnesty for those who perpetrated any politically motivated crimes during the period 31 January 2000 and 31 July 2000. [69] Motions for impeachment taken by the opposition as well as the President's intentions to run as ZANU (PF)'s sole candidate in the 2002 presidential elections cast further doubts on the country's political stability and prospects for good governance. [70]

5.  Forthcoming elections

Apart from provincial and municipal elections, the following seventeen presidential or parliamentary elections are scheduled in Africa for the year 2001: [71]

6.  Conclusion

Elections should not be viewed as a one-day event. Recent trends are towards transparent, free and fair elections within the democratic process. In the case of Ghana and Senegal it has surfaced that this can even occur after the third or even later elections where the incumbent is effectively removed through the ballot box. A country such as Tanzania, generally viewed as a stable and peaceful country, is constantly refining its democracy and reconciling issues pertaining to Zanzibar on the political front. But when one turns to the electoral process and political developments in countries such a Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe one cannot help but be concerned. Zimbabwe's involvement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo contributes to the destabilisation of the subregion. Zimbabwe is steered by a leader unwilling to step down. Côte d'Ivoire is plagued by political instability.

Recent political developments show that democracy, elections and human rights are interdependent. Experience has shown that human rights are far better protected where genuine, free and fair elections are conducted. One may conclude that the first 'wave of democratisation' has come to an end as most African countries have moved beyond this important transitional phase.

The challenge ahead is to stabilise and refine African democracies already in place. As J Freedman says, 'democratisation is a long process and stabilisation is even a longer process . . . Proper democracy cannot be possible without a proper electoral process.' [72] One can therefore conclude that although elections as such are no guarantee for democracy, they are a major contributing factor and an essential ingredient in its success and continuation.